After the National Day, the domestic PFA ushered in a wave of rapid rise. The main 1701 contract once climbed from 8900 yuan/ton to above 9900 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 10%. PFA continues to shake up. Looking forward to the future, although there is demand to digest the previous increase in the near future, considering the low support of inventory, it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

Recently, PFA prices have been rising continuously. The main logic is that PFA particle stocks remain low and continue to be shipped at high prices. The downstream is in the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period. The rigid demand is still good and the overall pattern of less goods continues to be maintained. In addition, the shortage of stock supply has been exhausted and price elasticity has been lost, resulting in prices continuing to move closer to external prices.

In addition to factors such as low petrochemical inventory prices and downstream replenishment, the devaluation of the RMB and unplanned maintenance of the plant also have a certain supporting effect on the futures price. Recently, the PFA disk has been rising, which has further improved the confidence of merchants in the spot market. Specifically, the market price of PFA particles continued to rise, with linear prices rising by 50-200 yuan/ton in each region. PFA particle futures continued to open high, PFA particle enterprises continue to pull up, the market under the support of high costs, with the rise of the offer shipment. However, the terminal inquiry enthusiasm is weak, just need to purchase the main trend.

Part of the petrochemical region factory prices continue to rise, the cost of the market support to further enhance. However, PFA granule factory firm purchase did not see a large volume, the terminal digestion capacity to follow up the limited pressure on the spot market. expected in the currentPFA GranulesWith the support of rising prices and relatively tight supply, the market will maintain a strong trend.

At present, the overall inventory level is still at a low level, and the overall just need to continue to improve steadily, coupled with the market to spot water triggered some traders arbitrage demand, the overall spot supply and demand side is still in a relatively good state. However, as the disk price has risen to the external disk price, it is expected that the upward pressure will be relatively large. The main reason is that if the import profit again appears, the supply may have a certain degree of flexibility again, which will bring pressure to the disk.

The increase in unplanned maintenance has hedged the pressure of new line production, the tight balance of spot supply, and the reduction of shipping schedule due to peripheral maintenance. The devaluation of RMB has raised the import cost. Short-term spot is easy to rise but difficult to fall. However, with the rapid rise of raw materials, PFA particle processing profits continue to compress, the high-level receiving capacity of PFA particle factories decreases, and the market resistance slowly accumulates. PFA particle inventory will be the inflection point index.

In the long run, the marginal supply and demand in November and December will remain stable, and the supply has no elasticity. However, the demand has reached its peak in November, and it is difficult to increase significantly. The marginal change mainly depends on the change of the import volume of peripheral goods. Therefore, it is expected that the long-term PFA futures price will likely maintain wide fluctuation, and the upward pressure is mainly the marginal change of the import of peripheral goods, the downward support is mainly due to the low inventory of petrochemical prices.

This article comes from:www.tflpfa.com